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13 April 2026: Weekly Update – AI Infrastructure Spending and Hyperscaler Risks

Weekly Update
Thematic Investing

AI-related capital expenditure by major hyperscalers continued accelerating, raising important questions around valuation, returns and capital intensity.

The largest technology platforms, the hyperscalers that dominate cloud computing and AI services, have undergone a quiet but important transformation. For most of the past decade, these businesses were celebrated for combining strong revenue growth with modest capital requirements and abundant cash flows returned to shareholders. Now, the ongoing build-out of AI capability has fundamentally changed what they do with the cash they generate.

The scale of investment now underway is striking. AI-related capital expenditure across the major hyperscalers is expected to run into the high hundreds of billions of US dollars in 2026 alone. In some cases, individual companies are directing close to their entire operating cash flow back into infrastructure. The asset-light platforms of a few years ago are today morphing into utilities: deploying enormous capital upfront, against returns that are real but still some years away.

Big tech firms’ spending on cloud computing

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Source: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/how-big-techs-630-bln-ai-splurge-will-fall-short-2026-03-26/).

This matters because it changes the investment proposition. Paying a premium valuation for a cash-generative business growing steadily is one thing. Paying a similar premium while that business is mid-cycle through an infrastructure build of uncertain duration and return is quite another.

Hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft) Forward PE Multiples

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Source: T. Bailey, LSEG Workspace.

Our response is not to step away from AI - it remains one of the most important long-term themes we can own for the coming years. But it is vital to be selective about where in the AI ecosystem we invest. Through the Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund, held in the T. Bailey funds of funds portfolios, we access businesses that benefit from AI adoption without shouldering the full cost of building it: software companies, sector leaders in healthcare and industry, and niche technology firms where the economics are already clear.

Hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft) 1 Year Performance

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Source: T. Bailey, LSEG Workspace. Total return, USD terms.

The T. Bailey funds of funds retain meaningful exposure to AI, accessed in a way that prioritises sustainable cash generation and valuation discipline over participation in the most capital-intensive parts of the build-out. We are staying with the AI story but remain thoughtful and disciplined about where we stand within it.

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