25 May 2026: Weekly Update – SpaceX IPO, Passive Investing and Market Concentration
The proposed SpaceX IPO has intensified debate around passive investing, market concentration and the growing influence of founder-led technology businesses within global equity indices. Gravity is the dominant force in …
18 May 2026: Weekly Update – AI Rotation, Healthcare Valuations and Market Concentration
Capital continued flowing aggressively toward AI-related sectors, creating a historically wide valuation gap between technology and healthcare equities. The dominant equity-market story of 2026 has been the abrupt rotation into …
11 May 2026: Weekly Update – UK Fiscal Pressure, Gilt Yields and Inflation Risks
The combination of persistent inflation, rising gilt yields and political instability continued pressuring UK financial markets and reinforcing the need for diversification. Last week's UK local elections delivered a sweeping …
5 May 2026: Weekly Update – Food Inflation, Hormuz and the Next Supply Shock
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly feeding through to fertiliser markets, raising the risk of a prolonged and underappreciated wave of food inflation into 2027. The energy …
April 2026 Market Review: AI Recovery, Energy Shock and the Inflation Wave Ahead
Global equities recovered sharply in April despite continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices. AI-related holdings and Asian markets led performance, while concerns increasingly shifted towards …
27 April 2026: Weekly Update – AI, Labour Arbitrage and the Future of Knowledge Work
The accelerating adoption of AI is reshaping labour economics and forcing investors to reconsider the long-term sustainability of traditional software business models. AI has been the dominant story of 2026, …
20 April 2026: Weekly Update – A Three-Speed World and the UK’s Slow Growth Problem
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook was published last week with its own chief economist qualifying its headline number before the press conference was over. Its forecast - global growth …
13 April 2026: Weekly Update – AI Infrastructure Spending and Hyperscaler Risks
AI-related capital expenditure by major hyperscalers continued accelerating, raising important questions around valuation, returns and capital intensity. The largest technology platforms, the hyperscalers that dominate cloud computing and AI services, …
7 April 2026: Weekly Update – Stagflation Risks and the Ghost of 2022
Persistent inflation and slowing growth revived stagflation concerns, though today’s environment differs significantly from the demand-driven inflation shock of 2022. "Stagflation" is back in the headlines, and with it comes …
Q1 2026 Quarterly Review: Energy Shock, Institutional Risk and Global Market Repricing
Q1 2026 was defined by geopolitical escalation, energy market disruption and growing questions around institutional credibility in the US. Markets responded with sharp volatility, sector rotation and a reassessment of …
March 2026 Market Review: Energy Crisis, Market Volatility and the Return of Stagflation Risk
A major energy shock drove volatility and raised stagflation concerns. Markets reacted to shifting economic expectations. March was the month that a risk many had been watching from a distance …
16 March 2026: Weekly Update – Central Banks, Policy Risk and Energy Inflation
Policy risk returned to the forefront as central banks attempted to balance slowing growth against persistent energy-driven inflation pressures. In the past few weeks, the dominant risk in markets has …
9 March 2026: Weekly Update – Hormuz Closure, Energy Shock and Inflation Risks
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused severe disruption across energy markets and raised stagflation risks for major global economies. The situation in brief It has been a …
February 2026 Market Review: AI Rotation, Energy Shock Risk and Emerging Market Leadership
AI entered a more selective phase while energy risks increased. Emerging markets continued to lead performance. Global equities delivered another positive month in February, with leadership continuing to broaden beyond …
2 March 2026: Weekly Update – Strong Market Start and Rising Gulf Tensions
Global equities delivered strong gains during the opening months of 2026 before geopolitical tensions in the Gulf introduced renewed market volatility. Financial markets have enjoyed a strong start to 2026, …
23 February 2026: Weekly Update – Japan’s New Chapter and Governance Reform
Japan’s evolving political and economic backdrop reinforced the attraction of improving corporate governance, rising wages and shareholder returns. Japan's political backdrop has shifted meaningfully in recent months. Sanae Takaichi, the …
16 February 2026: Weekly Update – The ‘pAIn Trade’ and AI Market Repricing
The market’s “pAIn trade” accelerated as investors rapidly reassessed the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on business models and valuations. This year we’ve seen the artificial intelligence theme abruptly transition …
9 February 2026: Weekly Update – AI Rotation and Technology Market Volatility
A sharp market rotation away from growth and software stocks highlighted rising concerns around AI disruption and concentrated US technology exposure. This was a week light on the kind of …
January 2026 Market Review: Institutional Risk, Emerging Market Strength and Gold Surge
Institutional uncertainty drove capital shifts. Emerging markets outperformed while gold benefited from safe-haven demand. January was shaped less by economic data and more by events that challenged the institutional foundations …
19 January 2026: Weekly Update – US Concentration Risk and Portfolio Resilience
Investors increasingly reassessed concentrated exposure to US assets as geopolitical leverage and policy uncertainty challenged assumptions around American exceptionalism. Last week we wrote about the cost of uncertainty and the …
January 2026: Energy Sector Outlook: Where Are We in the Cycle and What Could Drive the Oil Price Higher?
Oil prices have lagged other commodities in recent years despite tightening supply conditions and weakening investment. This raises the possibility that the energy sector may be approaching an inflection point …
12 January 2026: Weekly Update – Repricing Risk in US Markets
The opening to 2026 has been marked by an unusually rapid pace of policy disruption emanating from the US administration. Across trade, fiscal policy, and geopolitics long-standing assumptions are being …
5 January 2026: Weekly Update – 2025 Performance Outcomes and Diversification
The T. Bailey funds achieved strong relative performance in 2025, supported by diversification, valuation discipline and resilient multi-asset positioning. For the first weekly update of 2026 we thought it useful …
December 2025 Market Review: Central Bank Divergence, Commodity Extremes and AI Questions
Diverging central bank policies and commodity extremes defined December. Investors questioned the long-term returns from AI investment. The Regime Shift Unfolds The month began with the US Federal Reserve delivering …
December 2025: Water & Waste: An Investment Theme
Why Water & Waste Matters for Investors A growing global need driven by urbanisation, consumption, and resource scarcity Essential services societies rely on every day Resilient, long-term business models with …
15 December 2025: Weekly Update – The End of the US Dollar Supercycle?
A tightening Bank of Japan and softer US monetary policy may signal the beginning of a major shift away from the long-running US dollar supercycle. Following last week's US Federal …
8 December 2025: Weekly Update – Central Banks, Japan and Currency Divergence
Markets focused on diverging monetary policy expectations as the Bank of Japan prepared to tighten policy while Western central banks moved toward rate cuts. Markets enter the coming week pricing …
November 2025 Market Review: AI Volatility, Diversification Benefits and UK Budget Stability
Volatility returned as AI sentiment shifted. Diversification across asset classes supported portfolio resilience. November was a largely flat month overall for investors following a long stretch of gains earlier in …
1 December 2025: Weekly Update – UK Budget, Fiscal Headroom and Low Growth
The UK Autumn Budget reassured financial markets in the short term, though structural economic weaknesses and political volatility remained unresolved Speculation around the UK Budget - and the reaction to …
24 November 2025: Weekly Update – AI Infrastructure Spending and Valuation Risk
Investors became increasingly cautious around AI-related valuations as capital expenditure requirements and financing risks continued escalating. Market sentiment turned more cautious last week, even as Nvidia, the bellwether of the …
17 November 2025: Weekly Update – US Shutdown, Fiscal Risks and AI Volatility
Markets welcomed the resolution of the US government shutdown, though longer-term fiscal pressures and volatility within technology markets remained key concerns. The 43-day US government shutdown finally ended after Congress …
10 November 2025: Weekly Update – Water Infrastructure, Waste Management and Defensive Growth
Water and waste infrastructure businesses continue to offer attractive long-term characteristics including resilient earnings, strong cash generation and defensive growth. This week we caught up with Bertrand Lecourt and Saurabh …
3 November 2025: Weekly Update – AI Spending, Trade Truce and Berkshire’s Cash Pile
The final week of October capped a strong month for the T. Bailey funds, with returns across the range of 2.5% to 3.9% that were driven by the broad breadth …
October 2025 Market Review: Shutdown Volatility, Gold Surge and AI-Led Market Strength
Political uncertainty drove volatility, but strong AI-related performance supported equities. Gold continued to benefit from risk aversion. The month opened with a US government shutdown after Congress failed to reach …
27 October 2025: Weekly Update – Central Banks, AI Earnings and Valuation Risks
Investors focused on central bank policy decisions and AI-related earnings as elevated valuations and concentrated market leadership remained under scrutiny. Financial markets rallied to record highs on Friday after better-than-expected …
20 October 2025: Weekly Update – Gold’s Parabolic Rise and Portfolio Discipline Category
Markets sold off sharply after renewed US-China tariff threats reignited concerns around supply chains, trade disruption and global economic growth. It has been a week where it has been difficult …
13 October 2025: Weekly Update – Tariff Escalation, China Tensions and Market Volatility
Markets sold off sharply after renewed US-China tariff threats reignited concerns around supply chains, trade disruption and global economic growth. Global markets delivered a sharp reminder of their sensitivity to …
6 October 2025: Weekly Update – Healthcare Reform, TrumpRx and Sector Recovery
Healthcare markets reacted sharply to US drug-pricing reforms, though selective positioning within smaller-cap healthcare and biotechnology companies supported fund performance. Investors in T. Bailey’s funds of funds will be familiar …
September 2025 Market Review: Fiscal Stress, Safe-Haven Gold and AI Exuberance Risks
Fiscal concerns weighed on markets while gold surged as a safe haven. AI valuations began to face increased scrutiny. September began with bond markets questioning the longer-term fiscal credibility of …
August 2025 Market Review: Labour Weakness, Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Strength
Weak US labour data and political disruption unsettled markets. Gold reached new highs while equities remained resilient despite macro uncertainty. August began with a downward jolt from the United States, …
July 2025 Market Review: Market Resilience, US Policy Shifts and Emerging Market Opportunities
Markets showed resilience despite US tariff risks and geopolitical tensions. Strong equity performance was supported by AI leadership and emerging market opportunities. In July 2025, financial markets were significantly influenced …
28 July 2025: Weekly Update – Emerging Markets, AI Adoption and Diversification
Emerging market equities remained attractive due to supportive valuations, structural growth trends and diversification benefits. This week we added to emerging market equity exposure across the fund of funds portfolios …
21 July 2025: Weekly Update – US Market Concentration and Global Valuation Opportunities
Investors increasingly questioned the sustainability of concentrated US equity leadership as valuation opportunities broadened across global markets. Recent months have seen markets brush-off the threat of tariffs and once again …
14 July 2025: Weekly Update – Copper Tariffs, Nvidia and Dollar Weakness
Tariff concerns returned to financial markets as copper prices surged and investors continued to focus on the dominance of major US technology companies. Market sentiment was rattled last week as …
7 July 2025: Weekly Update – Fiscal Deficits, Tariffs and Capital Preservation
Investors continued to assess the implications of rising fiscal deficits, expanding tariff policies and growing questions around long-term fiscal sustainability. US President Trump prepares to dispatch his promised tariff letters …
June 2025 Market Review: Energy Shocks, AI Acceleration and Shifting Global Trade Dynamics
Energy market volatility dominated June as geopolitical tensions drove sharp movements in oil prices. At the same time, accelerating AI adoption continued to reshape market dynamics and sector performance. June …
27 June 2025: Weekly Update – Oil Weakness, AI Leadership and Middle East Ceasefire
Markets edged higher following a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, while enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continued to dominate investor sentiment. Financial markets edged higher this week as a fragile …
20 June 2025: Weekly Update – Middle East Escalation, Central Banks and AI Deflation
Financial markets remained resilient despite escalating conflict in the Middle East as investors focused on energy prices, central bank policy and the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence. The most significant …
13 June 2025: Weekly Update – Rare Earths, Middle East Tensions and UK Value Opportunities
Trade tensions between the US and China remained elevated while renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East triggered a cautious tone across financial markets. There was considerable anticipation surrounding the …
6 June 2025: Weekly Update – US Fiscal Concerns and Portfolio Diversification
Debate surrounding the sustainability of US fiscal policy intensified as investors assessed rising deficits, political uncertainty and long-term debt risks. Elon Musk’s public spat with US President Trump regarding US …
May 2025 Market Review: Trade Policy Volatility, USD Weakness and Global Equity Rebound
Trade tensions eased in May, supporting a recovery in global equity markets. A weaker US dollar and continued strength in gold reinforced the importance of diversification across asset classes. Following …
30 May 2025: Weekly Update – Tariff Legal Challenges and Emerging Markets Opportunities
Legal challenges to US President Trump's tariff authority created more fodder for financial markets to digest this week. A US International Trade Court ruled that most of Trump's reciprocal tariffs …
23 May 2025: Weekly Update – Fiscal Deficits, Bond Markets and Rising Term Premiums
Government bond markets remained under pressure as rising fiscal deficits and increased debt issuance pushed yields to multi-decade highs. Long-term government bond yields have continued to climb in recent years …
22 December 2025: Weekly Update – Central Banks, Japan and Year-End Reflection
Markets ended the year focused on diverging central bank policy decisions, particularly Japan’s continued move away from ultra-low interest rates. The past week in financial markets was firmly shaped by …
16 May 2025: Weekly Update – US-China Tariff Pause and Market Fragility
A temporary pause in US-China tariffs sparked a sharp market rally, though structural economic and geopolitical risks continued to threaten stability. This past week, global financial markets experienced a dramatic …
9 May 2025: Weekly Report – AI Investment Themes and Diverging Central Banks
Financial markets recovered further from April’s tariff-driven volatility as investors balanced resilient economic data against continued policy uncertainty. So far this month, financial markets have continued their rebound from the …
2 May 2025: Weekly Update – Tariff Risks, Slowing Growth and Oil Weakness
Economic data continued to show resilience, though weakening shipping activity, falling oil prices and deteriorating surveys pointed to growing downside risks. The US employment report for April released during the …
April 2025 Market Review: Tariff Shockwaves, USD Weakness and a Gold-Led Recovery
Markets experienced sharp volatility following new US tariff announcements before stabilising later in the month. Gold rallied strongly as investors sought protection from currency weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. Global markets …
25 April 2025: Weekly Report – Trade Tensions, Dollar Weakness and Economic Risks
Markets stabilised temporarily following softer US rhetoric on trade, though concerns around stagflation and slowing global growth persisted. Negative comments from US President Trump about US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome …
11 April 2025: Weekly Update – Tariffs, Market Volatility and US Leadership Concerns
US President Donald Trump has continued to confound the world with announcements on tariffs - ending the week with a base 10% levy on virtually all imports into the United …
4 April 2025: Weekly Update – Global Market Sell-Off and Trade Escalation
Financial markets experienced a historic collapse last week, triggered by a dramatic escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new …
March 2025 Market Review: Tariff Shock, European Stimulus and Commodity Strength
Tariff escalation drove volatility in March, while significant fiscal stimulus in Europe supported regional markets. Commodity strength, particularly in gold and copper, played a key role in portfolio performance. March …
31 March 2025: Weekly Update – Liberation Day Tariffs and Stagflation Risks
Fresh tariff announcements and rising inflation concerns heightened fears of stagflation and further economic slowdown A promising start to the week proved short lived as global equity markets stumbled on …
24 March 2025: Weekly Update – Policy Uncertainty and Investor Positioning
Financial markets remained volatile as investors reacted to rising policy uncertainty, trade tensions and weakening consumer confidence. Financial market volatility persisted through last week, with a notable rebound on Friday …
17 March 2025: Weekly Update – Europe Stimulus and Diversified Portfolios
Shifting growth expectations between the US and Europe reinforced the value of broad diversification across regions and asset classes. Equity markets are presently reflecting shifting growth expectations between the US …
10 March 2025: Weekly Update – Tariffs, Trade Tensions and Market Volatility
Escalating trade tensions and unpredictable US policy actions triggered increased volatility across global equity and currency markets. On 4 March 2025, the Trump administration introduced a 25% tax on most …
February 2025 Market Review: AI Shifts, Tariff Volatility and Europe’s Rising Influence
AI developments continued to reshape market leadership in February, while tariff tensions and inflation uncertainty weighed on sentiment. European markets showed increasing resilience amid shifting global dynamics. The opening months …
3 March 2025: Weekly Update – Europe Outperformance and Sector Rotation
Investor sentiment continued rotating toward Europe and defensive sectors as US policy uncertainty weighed on technology-heavy equity markets. 24 February to 28 February 2025 The balance of political policy uncertainty …
28 February 2025: Weekly Update – Europe Rebounds as US Sentiment Weakens
European markets outperformed as investors grew more cautious on the US outlook following weaker consumer confidence data and continued policy uncertainty. The balance of political policy uncertainty when comparing the …
14 February 2025: Weekly Update – Inflation Risks, Gold and Defence Spending
Markets remained focused on inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions and the implications of rising global defence spending for investors and asset allocation. Despite ongoing concerns about potential trade escalations, particularly as …
7 February 2025: Weekly Update – AI Commoditisation and Cybersecurity Themes
Rapid advances in low-cost AI development highlighted the growing commoditisation of artificial intelligence and reinforced the importance of cybersecurity and proprietary data. Last week saw the announcement of yet another …
January 2025 Market Review: AI Disruption, Tariff Volatility and Commodities Strength
Strong US data pushed bond yields higher in January, creating pressure on global markets. Commodities performed strongly, while AI developments introduced new uncertainty into tech valuations. The opening month of …
24 January 2025: Weekly Update – DeepSeek, AI Competition and US Exceptionalism
Commodities continued to perform strongly while equity market leadership broadened beyond technology, supporting a more diversified investment backdrop. Following President Trump’s success at the US election, financial markets have embraced …
17 January 2025: Weekly Update – Commodities Strength and Market Rotation
Bond market stability supported broader equity participation while commodities, particularly gold and copper, continued to perform strongly. An economic and political state of uncertainty is expected to peak on 20 …
10 January 2025: Weekly Update – Rising Bond Yields and Inflation Concerns
Strong US labour market data intensified inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher, increasing pressure across global financial markets. The first full week of the new year has been dominated …
