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Source: Bloomberg.com (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BM7P:IND)
As a result, market breadth has once again narrowed with the performance of larger cap companies making new highs relative to the wider market.
Source: Bloomberg (Rebased to 100 as of 2 January 2024).
This has taken the valuation of large cap US stocks towards the upper end of their historic ranges.
Source: Marquee Finance.
However, past history suggests disappointing returns for longer-term investors from such a starting point.
Source: Apollo. Notes: Returns are calculated in the S&P 500 index for the following 10 years for people investing in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. Annualized returns for 2020 are calculated using data from January 2020 to 7 July 2025.
Fortunately, less expensive opportunities exist outside of the US …
Source: JPM Guide to the Markets, 18 July 2025
… and, in common currency terms, these have been outperforming US equities this year, favouring the more globally balanced equity allocations of the T. Bailey funds of funds.
Source: LSEG Datastream. Performance rebased to 100 at 31 December 2024.
