T. Bailey Asset Management Limited do not provide advice to private individuals.

The information contained on this website is intended to provide information about our products and services and is not intended as investment advice. It is important that you do not rely upon its content to make investment decisions without seeking independent advice.

This website is intended for United Kingdom professional investors and advisers only. Please ensure you read the important legal information.

18 August 2025: Weekly Update – China Slowdown, Emerging Markets and Inflation

Weekly Update
Global Equities

Weak Chinese economic data continued to raise concerns about long-term growth, although stimulus expectations and attractive valuations supported emerging market equities.

Recent economic data has revealed that China’s economy is losing steam. The latest numbers for industrial output, retail sales, and investment have been weaker than expected, not just in housing but now also in manufacturing and exports. China’s official growth targets look ambitious, particularly without the country addressing its deep-seated issues such as high savings rates and sluggish household spending. Nonetheless, in the shorter term, stimulus measures have been discussed which, alongside relatively attractive valuations and other factors, is helping drive the outperformance of Emerging Market equities year to date.

China vs Emerging Market vs US Equities Year to Date: GBP Terms

Picture5

Source: FE Analytics.

In contrast, US equities remain somewhat of a laggard so far this year – particularly when measured in common currency terms. US services inflation remains high and producer price inflation surged 0.9% in July, the largest monthly increase in three years, far exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Thus, although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting, arguments for large and ongoing rate cuts are weak.

Composition of US Inflation

Picture6

Source: John Authers, Bloomberg