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8 September 2025: Weekly Update – Slowing Growth, Sticky Inflation and Fiscal Risks

Weekly Update
Economic Outlook

Economic data pointed to a global economy facing simultaneous pressures from weaker growth, stubborn inflation and growing fiscal uncertainty.

Economic news this week pointed to a global economy contending with overlapping risks on growth, inflation and fiscal fragility.

Friday’s latest US jobs report revealed a marked slowdown, with payrolls barely inching forward.

US Hiring Has Slowed

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Source: Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to frustrate.

US Manufacturing Price Inflation

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Source: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, 2 September 2025.

Finally, both France and the UK are testing market confidence over fiscal stability.

In France, a looming vote of no confidence is set to topple yet another prime minister. Unfortunately, parliamentary deadlock and running a stubbornly high deficit leave little hope of a sustainable solution.

In the UK, government assurances of fiscal discipline are being met with scepticism as questions mount over its ability to meet its spending rules. With speculation likely to continue until at least the Autumn budget, now pushed back to 26 November, we trimmed UK equity exposure in the T. Bailey funds of funds portfolios during the week – reducing the Polar Capital UK Value Opportunities Fund by 1% of NAV.

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