26 January 2026: Weekly Update – Multipolar Investing and Geographic Diversification

That inertia would matter less if markets were still rewarding concentration in the same way they did over the past decade - but they are not. Over the last twelve months, a clear pattern has emerged within the same IA sector: funds with lower beta to the S&P 500 have outperformed those with higher US sensitivity. This is not a forecast about what might happen in a more fragmented, multipolar world, but is evidence of what is already happening. The assumption that heavy US financial market exposure is the safest default is quietly being challenged by real-world performance outcomes.

Taken together, these two charts present a clear picture: The first highlights an industry that has largely stood still, constrained by benchmarks and convention. The second shows that the market has already begun to reward those who move earlier. This is exactly the environment Carney was describing. When economic integration becomes a source of vulnerability rather than stability, concentration risk becomes a practical concern. Geographic diversification, reduced mega-cap dominance and exposure to resilient, investing economies move from being long-term ideas to near-term drivers of returns.

This backdrop naturally favours investment approaches that are not tightly bound to global cap-weighted benchmarks. At T. Bailey, our Multi-Asset Dynamic, Multi-Asset Growth and Global Thematic Equity strategies are designed with that flexibility in mind. The aim is not to make short-term calls on the US, but to protect and grow capital in real terms across changing regimes. That means the freedom to rebalance geographically, to manage name and sector concentration actively, and to maintain exposure to real assets and economies focused on resilience. Carney’s speech provided the intellectual framework for this shift, and the IA data suggests markets are already endorsing it. For investors deciding whether to act now or wait for wider consensus, the message from performance is becoming harder to ignore: those who have already adjusted are ahead, and the cost of waiting is rising.