Market Review – The Cost of Borrowing
September brought higher interest rates across several major economies, rising long-term government-bond yields and another increase in oil prices. With borrowing costs remaining elevated and traditional diversifiers such as gold …
Weekly Update – Strong Growth and Sticky Inflation
September's flash PMI surveys point to stronger-than-expected growth in the US and eurozone, but also renewed inflation pressures that could keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer. The …
Weekly Update – US Jobs, Inflation and the Interest Rate Outlook
The US labour market is holding up better than previously thought after substantial revisions to July’s employment data and a stronger August jobs report. That resilience is good news for …
Market Review – Everything Advances, Nothing Resolves
August moved several of the year's biggest investment stories forward without resolving them. Renewed conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, rising concerns over US government debt and another surge in …
Weekly Update – Inflation, Jobs and Record Equity Markets
Softer US inflation and a surprisingly weak jobs report are pulling Federal Reserve expectations in different directions, yet equity markets continue to reach record highs. With commodities unsettled and UK …
Weekly Update – Gold Finds Support as US Jobs Data Weakens
Gold recorded its strongest one-day gain since February as weaker US employment data challenged expectations for tighter monetary policy, while continued central-bank buying reinforced the longer-term investment case. Gold had …
Market Review: Proof of Return
Investors started to ask more basic questions about the AI roll out in July. Not whether the technology will matter to the future of the world, but who earns a …
Weekly Update – The Gap Between the UK Economy and Stock Market
The outlook for the UK economy remains subdued, but the prospects for UK-listed companies can look very different. Strong operational delivery, global revenues and renewed takeover activity are helping investors …
Weekly Update – Oil, Alphabet’s Capex and the AI Debate
Oil prices have risen sharply as the US-Iran ceasefire unravels, complicating the inflation outlook just as investors face fresh questions about the sustainability of AI spending. This week’s update examines …
Weekly Update – Guiding without Moving: The Fed's Maradona Strategy
The Federal Reserve's latest messaging has demonstrated that expectations can sometimes be as powerful as action. This week's update explains Mervyn King's famous "Maradona theory of interest rates" and explores …
Weekly Update – Geopolitical Complacency and the Fragility of Market Assumptions
Markets have responded calmly to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, continuing to assume that any disruption will be short-lived. This week's update examines whether investors are becoming too complacent …
Quarterly Report: AI, Inflation and the Outlook for Investors
T. Bailey’s Q2 2026 Quarterly Report reviews a period in which equity markets recovered strongly despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty. It examines the powerful influence of AI-related earnings, the changing inflation …
Market Review: A Month of Tests
June was a month in which investors were forced to reassess several long-held assumptions. From geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and changing central bank expectations to questions surrounding AI …
Weekly Update – A Dollar Reprieve
The consensus trade of the past year has been to favour gold and other real assets while remaining underweight the US dollar. This week's update explores why changing expectations around …
Weekly Update – Let the Oil Flow
A ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran triggered a sharp fall in oil prices and a broad relief rally across global markets. However, inventory shortages, inflation lags and differing …
Weekly Update – Quiet Compounders in a Noisy Market
While investors focus on AI, technology and geopolitical headlines, the global insurance sector continues to compound book value at double-digit rates. Despite improving fundamentals and a more favourable interest-rate environment, …
Weekly Update – The Capex Cycle's Moment of Truth
Broadcom's earnings disappointment and rising Treasury yields triggered a sharp market reversal during the week, prompting renewed questions about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle. The update examines whether …
Market Review: The Ceasefire Trade, Food Inflation and AI Concentration
Oil prices fell sharply and equity markets reached new highs during May, but beneath the surface investors continue to face inflation risks, fiscal pressures and unprecedented market concentration. The report …
Market Review: AI Recovery, Energy Shock and the Inflation Wave Ahead
Global equities recovered sharply in April despite continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices. AI-related holdings and Asian markets led performance, while concerns increasingly shifted towards …
Quarterly Review: Energy Shock, Institutional Risk and Global Market Repricing
Q1 2026 was defined by geopolitical escalation, energy market disruption and growing questions around institutional credibility in the US. Markets responded with sharp volatility, sector rotation and a reassessment of …
Market Review: Energy Crisis, Market Volatility and the Return of Stagflation Risk
A major energy shock drove volatility and raised stagflation concerns. Markets reacted to shifting economic expectations. March was the month that a risk many had been watching from a distance …
Weekly Update – Expensive Energy, Inflation and the Longer-Term Risks
The immediate energy shock may ultimately prove manageable, but its longer-term consequences could be harder to escape. Persistently higher energy costs, structural demand for gold and renewed pressure on UK …
Weekly Update – Energy Shock, Tail Risks and Global Diversification
Markets have rapidly priced the risks of prolonged disruption to Gulf energy supplies, but the political incentives still point towards an eventual off-ramp. Beyond the immediate shock, the crisis could …
Market Review: AI Rotation, Energy Shock Risk and Emerging Market Leadership
AI entered a more selective phase while energy risks increased. Emerging markets continued to lead performance. Global equities delivered another positive month in February, with leadership continuing to broaden beyond …
Market Review: Institutional Risk, Emerging Market Strength and Gold Surge
Institutional uncertainty drove capital shifts. Emerging markets outperformed while gold benefited from safe-haven demand. January was shaped less by economic data and more by events that challenged the institutional foundations …
Weekly Update – Multipolar Investing and Geographic Diversification
Mark Carney’s Davos speech provides a timely framework for considering geographic concentration, as recent data suggests portfolios with lower sensitivity to US equities have begun to outperform their more US-dependent …
Market Review: Central Bank Divergence, Commodity Extremes and AI Questions
Diverging central bank policies and commodity extremes defined December. Investors questioned the long-term returns from AI investment. The Regime Shift Unfolds The month began with the US Federal Reserve delivering …
Market Review: AI Volatility, Diversification Benefits and UK Budget Stability
Volatility returned as AI sentiment shifted. Diversification across asset classes supported portfolio resilience. November was a largely flat month overall for investors following a long stretch of gains earlier in …
Market Review: Shutdown Volatility, Gold Surge and AI-Led Market Strength
Political uncertainty drove volatility, but strong AI-related performance supported equities. Gold continued to benefit from risk aversion. The month opened with a US government shutdown after Congress failed to reach …
Weekly Update – AI Spending, Trade Truce and Berkshire’s Cash Pile
The final week of October capped a strong month for the T. Bailey funds, with returns across the range of 2.5% to 3.9% that were driven by the broad breadth …
Market Review: Fiscal Stress, Safe-Haven Gold and AI Exuberance Risks
Fiscal concerns weighed on markets while gold surged as a safe haven. AI valuations began to face increased scrutiny. September began with bond markets questioning the longer-term fiscal credibility of …
Market Review: Labour Weakness, Policy Uncertainty and Commodity Strength
Weak US labour data and political disruption unsettled markets. Gold reached new highs while equities remained resilient despite macro uncertainty. August began with a downward jolt from the United States, …
Market Review: Market Resilience, US Policy Shifts and Emerging Market Opportunities
Markets showed resilience despite US tariff risks and geopolitical tensions. Strong equity performance was supported by AI leadership and emerging market opportunities. In July 2025, financial markets were significantly influenced …
Market Review: Energy Shocks, AI Acceleration and Shifting Global Trade Dynamics
Energy market volatility dominated June as geopolitical tensions drove sharp movements in oil prices. At the same time, accelerating AI adoption continued to reshape market dynamics and sector performance. June …
Market Review: Trade Policy Volatility, USD Weakness and Global Equity Rebound
Trade tensions eased in May, supporting a recovery in global equity markets. A weaker US dollar and continued strength in gold reinforced the importance of diversification across asset classes. Following …
Weekly Update – US-China Tariff Pause and Market Fragility
A temporary pause in US-China tariffs sparked a sharp market rally, though structural economic and geopolitical risks continued to threaten stability. This past week, global financial markets experienced a dramatic …
Market Review: Tariff Shockwaves, USD Weakness and a Gold-Led Recovery
Markets experienced sharp volatility following new US tariff announcements before stabilising later in the month. Gold rallied strongly as investors sought protection from currency weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. Global markets …
Weekly Update – Global Market Sell-Off and Trade Escalation
Financial markets experienced a historic collapse last week, triggered by a dramatic escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new …
Market Review: Tariff Shock, European Stimulus and Commodity Strength
Tariff escalation drove volatility in March, while significant fiscal stimulus in Europe supported regional markets. Commodity strength, particularly in gold and copper, played a key role in portfolio performance. March …
Market Review: AI Shifts, Tariff Volatility and Europe’s Rising Influence
AI developments continued to reshape market leadership in February, while tariff tensions and inflation uncertainty weighed on sentiment. European markets showed increasing resilience amid shifting global dynamics. The opening months …
Market Review: AI Disruption, Tariff Volatility and Commodities Strength
Strong US data pushed bond yields higher in January, creating pressure on global markets. Commodities performed strongly, while AI developments introduced new uncertainty into tech valuations. The opening month of …
Weekly Update – DeepSeek, AI Competition and US Exceptionalism
Commodities continued to perform strongly while equity market leadership broadened beyond technology, supporting a more diversified investment backdrop. Following President Trump’s success at the US election, financial markets have embraced …
Weekly Update – Commodities Strength and Market Rotation
Bond market stability supported broader equity participation while commodities, particularly gold and copper, continued to perform strongly. An economic and political state of uncertainty is expected to peak on 20 …
