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24 March 2025: Weekly Update – Policy Uncertainty and Investor Positioning

Weekly Update
Economic Outlook

Financial markets remained volatile as investors reacted to rising policy uncertainty, trade tensions and weakening consumer confidence.

Financial market volatility persisted through last week, with a notable rebound on Friday that partially mitigated earlier declines. In particular, US equities experienced a significant rally on Friday, marking their strongest one-day performance since November after entering correction territory midweek.

This volatility reflects the uncertainty in macroeconomic policy, primarily influenced by President Trump’s trade policies. In recent weeks, the US has implemented tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, leading to retaliatory measures from Canada and the European Union. Additionally, Trump has proposed a 200% tariff on European wines and spirits, further escalating tensions with important trading partners. These developments have raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures and constraints on economic growth.

Monthly US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

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Source: policyuncertainty.com, 24 March 2025

This increased policy uncertainty has been reason for central banks to remain cautious with each of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates on hold last week.

Policy uncertainty is also weighing on consumer sentiment, particularly in the US where survey data suggests expectations are deteriorating whilst inflation expectations have jumped.

US Consumer Surveys

Screenshot 2026-05-18 172622

Source: The Daily Shot, 17 March 2025.

With this in mind, we note that most investors are not positioned for a world where the US is less “exceptional”. US markets, which have been the dominant force for several years, have recently been ceding ground to European and Chinese equities.

US equity market valuations versus the rest of the world

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Source: Yardeni, 20 March 2025

This notable change in the geographical distribution of equity market performance has been beneficial to more globally diversified portfolios like those of the T. Bailey funds of funds.

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