Global markets were rocked in April as the Trump administration ratcheted up trade tensions between the US and the rest of the world, igniting fears of a slowdown in global growth.
This Quarterly Report is designed to support our valued advisers and clients.
March was marked by heightened volatility as US trade policy uncertainty weighed on growth expectations and pushed US equities into correction territory. By contrast, European markets benefited from fiscal stimulus hopes, while gold and copper supported diversified portfolios amid persistent geopolitical and policy risk.
February highlighted shifting global leadership as AI innovation became increasingly commoditised, challenging valuations in US technology. Rising trade tensions, firmer US inflation and weakening growth weighed on US assets, while non-US equities, commodities and diversified portfolios proved more resilient.
The opening month of the year has been dominated by news from the US that has set the tone for global financial markets. Robust US macro data at the start of the month showed continued strong US jobs growth, accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate and solid growth in earnings.
November was dominated by Donald Trump’s election victory, boosting US equities but reviving concerns over tariffs, inflation and higher bond yields. Elevated valuations and market concentration point to more muted long-term returns, reinforcing the case for broader, more balanced portfolio positioning.
October highlighted the resilience of the US economy but also the risks of increasingly concentrated equity leadership and elevated valuations. Policy uncertainty in China and the UK, shifting interest-rate expectations, and strong performance from gold and alternatives reinforced the case for broad diversification and selective exposure to cheaper markets.
Markets recovered from an early sell-off driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting Japanese policy expectations and crowded positioning in US equities. As inflation pressures eased and central banks refocused on growth, returns began to broaden beyond mega-cap technology, reinforcing the value of diversification.
August witnessed volatility rarely seen in financial markets. Initial blame for the two day financial market dislocation was laid at the door of weak US unemployment data suggesting that a US recession was imminent. Less than a week later, a benign jobless claims release led to a 2% plus bounce in US equities.
July saw a sharp rotation away from US mega-cap technology toward smaller companies as inflation eased and rate-cut expectations grew. Diverging central bank actions, a stronger yen and improved UK political clarity drove market volatility, while diversified portfolios benefited from broader equity leadership.
July markets were driven by fine margins in economic data and political events, with slightly softer inflation and weakening labour markets shaping rate-cut expectations. UK political clarity supported sterling and assets, while shifting US and European politics added to volatility but left diversified portfolios well placed.
