Blogs, News and Thought Pieces

August witnessed volatility rarely seen in financial markets. Initial blame for the two day financial market dislocation was laid at the door of weak US unemployment data suggesting that a US recession was imminent. Less than a week later, a benign jobless claims release led to a 2% plus bounce in US equities.

Downs and Up As inflation continued to subside in western developed economies, so the inevitable official interest rate cuts’ debate swelled.  More on that below.  China belatedly cut rates in an attempt to boost its ailing economy.  In contrast, the Bank of Japan finally grabbed the moment to raise interest rates. Breadth The publication of […]

Margins Fine This past weekend gave us examples of fine margins.  Spain’s winner in the Euro final against England being just onside and England’s chances being cleared off the line with just a couple of minutes to go.  For followers of the oval ball, Ireland’s last minute kick to beat South Africa was another. Crucially […]

Financial markets’ fixation with US unemployment data, despite its poor construction and large revisions, brought about a tough start to June.

The two key US statistics that have the ability to move US (as well as other) financial markets are inflation data and the unemployment report.

One of the key factors for equity markets to extend their rally into the end of 2023 was the expectation of official interest rate cuts in the US, UK and Eurozone by their respective central banks.

With inflation headed lower although not yet at the pace central bankers would like, encouraging economic growth signs emerged from both the UK and Eurozone last week. 

GDP is short for Gross Domestic Product, a measure of an economy’s output and the most watched in many cases. It could also be an acronym for gigantic data processing and an important component of the artificial intelligence (AI)

Different ways of investing. Each has their merits and their disciples but the reality is that none of the them are separated by clear demarcation lines.

Last October, post the Iranian-sponsored Hamas attack on Israel, we made an asset allocation call to raise cash across the funds we manage. The multi-asset funds were the main allocators to a cash increase as they would be expected to be more defensive when required.

Are We Nearly There Yet? - Not the first time we’ve used this title but appropriate during school holidays and reviewing market optimism, or lack thereof, about official rate cut expectations in the UK, EU and US.

Two things grabbed market attention in the first half of March: The UK budget on 6 March which had little impact on financial markets and the US employment report which commands more attention than it warrants given huge revisions to previous data.