Blogs, News and Thought Pieces

The US economy continues to exhibit notable resilience, particularly in terms of consumer spending. Many consumers and businesses secured low interest rates during the pandemic, with fixed-rate mortgages serving as a prominent example, thereby mitigating the impact of current higher interest rates. Fiscal policy has been expansive, with the United States running a 6% budget […]

This Quarterly Report is designed to support our valued advisers and clients. It contains: A market review and key insights Performance reviews for each T. Bailey fund Portfolio highlights Asset allocations Views on various asset classes Our outlook for the next quarter We hope you find this report helpful and informative. You can download here: […]

Global equity markets achieved positive returns in aggregate for the month despite a significant downturn early on. Source: FE Analytics Numerous wide ranging factors contributed to market stress including: Berkshire Hathaway’s announcement that it had halved its Apple Inc. position, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in the Middle East, comments from the Bank of […]

August witnessed volatility rarely seen in financial markets. Initial blame for the two day financial market dislocation was laid at the door of weak US unemployment data suggesting that a US recession was imminent. Less than a week later, a benign jobless claims release led to a 2% plus bounce in US equities.

Downs and Up As inflation continued to subside in western developed economies, so the inevitable official interest rate cuts’ debate swelled.  More on that below.  China belatedly cut rates in an attempt to boost its ailing economy.  In contrast, the Bank of Japan finally grabbed the moment to raise interest rates. Breadth The publication of […]

Margins Fine This past weekend gave us examples of fine margins.  Spain’s winner in the Euro final against England being just onside and England’s chances being cleared off the line with just a couple of minutes to go.  For followers of the oval ball, Ireland’s last minute kick to beat South Africa was another. Crucially […]

Financial markets’ fixation with US unemployment data, despite its poor construction and large revisions, brought about a tough start to June.

The two key US statistics that have the ability to move US (as well as other) financial markets are inflation data and the unemployment report.

One of the key factors for equity markets to extend their rally into the end of 2023 was the expectation of official interest rate cuts in the US, UK and Eurozone by their respective central banks.

With inflation headed lower although not yet at the pace central bankers would like, encouraging economic growth signs emerged from both the UK and Eurozone last week. 

GDP is short for Gross Domestic Product, a measure of an economy’s output and the most watched in many cases. It could also be an acronym for gigantic data processing and an important component of the artificial intelligence (AI)

Different ways of investing. Each has their merits and their disciples but the reality is that none of the them are separated by clear demarcation lines.