Lower for Longer There was a time when ‘lower for longer’ meant that short term interest rates or official monetary policy in the developed economies, would remain low or perhaps go lower. That may still be the case but, except for the US, there is little scope for interest rate cuts from the major Central […]
Is the term ’emerging markets’ merely a flag of convenience? Finding an Asian fund that doesn’t deliver index-like returns is like finding a needle in a haystack.
Overrated II In June’s mid-monthly update ‘Overrated’ – https://tbaileyam.co.uk/news-and-views/ – we commented on the potential over-optimism of developed government bond markets regarding the future path of official interest rates led by the US Federal Funds rate. At the same time, we referenced the start of the 2019 Cricket World Cup in England and Wales and […]
Overrated The Cricket World Cup is currently taking place in England and Wales, and there are a few games taking place at Trent Bridge here in Nottingham. I was fortunate enough to be at the England vs Pakistan match last week. A cracking match but England lost. England almost had their captain suspended for a […]
The title of this piece refers to a misalignment of interest often also described as a principal/agent conflict. The principal is the investor and the agent is the asset manager. The investor wants to preserve and grow their capital in real terms while many agents, especially publically-quoted asset management companies, want to gather assets and […]
As markets again oscillate around tariffs and the latest tweets from Donald Trump, we thought we would avoid adding to your list of commentaries on that subject and instead focus on a long-standing gripe of ours – inappropriate labels and our industry’s desire to sell product made for institutional investors rather than solutions for the […]
Brexit – we thought we were close but now it might take longer so the questions might be if and when? The Tax Year End – something you can depend on and the last minute scurrying around that goes with it. We are coming to the end of the National Hunt Festival at Cheltenham and […]
Currently financial markets are nervous about a few things. From the media headlines of last year worrying their readership about growth being too strong in the US economy and interest rates needing to rise, we now have worries about recession in most developed economies and the yields on their government bonds plummeting to reflect this […]
Also a great song from 1980 by The Vapors but … …Yesterday morning (21/2/19) saw the release of Germany’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February. The index fell to a 74 month low of 47.6 versus an expected 49.8. Order books saw the biggest fall for six and a half years. So, negative Euro interest […]
Earlier this month we witnessed the Chinese New Year and the start of the year of the pig. For the Chinese, the year of the pig has a specific relevance, good fortune and a beautiful personality. For the sceptics among us that view economic statistics from China with some caution, pig might stand for perpetually […]
It’s a Small World Yes, at times every stock market and in 2018, almost every asset class seems to be highly correlated unfortunately in last year’s case – to the downside. One could be forgiven for thinking that means the investment world has become smaller. Perhaps the weight of money pouring into passive investing effectively […]
January Sales The sales that occur in January and with reasonable frequency throughout the year. This is a familiar story as figures from the British Retail Consortium (see below) would indicate unless you’re Aldi or LIDL. Any coincidence that they are both private companies and can run […]
For your support this year as 2018 comes to an end. It is also worth noting that one of our concerns is the amount of debt the private sector has built up, notably in the US where cheap funding costs have enabled many companies to borrow cheaply to buy back their own stock and in […]
And that is the last time I shall mention the ‘B’ word in this piece. Regular readers and investors will be familiar with our thematic approach to investing rather than the conventional geography and asset class template commonly used in our industry. We publish our key investment themes to invest in but don’t often mention […]
Not a reference to the appalling wildfires around the inappropriately named town of Paradise but a Brexit reference to the May deal – ‘you can check out but you might never leave’, a modest adaptation of the lyrics from that classic song by The Eagles. Writing the mid-monthly update during a tumultuous period in British […]
One of the noteworthy events of October so far in amongst the party conferences was the UK shareholders overturning the decision of one of the UK’s leading corporates to re-locate from London to Rotterdam in the face of Brexit. As a consequence, Unileaver will remain Unilever. Anyone who has been to Rotterdam might question the […]
Summer Fair While many will have attended a village summer fayre in recent weeks, the existing political climate is about fairness in society manifesting itself through populism which has been in focus since the Brexit referendum and the Trump election. While some political campaigning has targeted voters’ fears, more recent non-political campaigns have been about […]
PRIDE July is a busy month, the middle of the three summer months containing many sporting events as well as cultural gatherings. No Glastonbury this year but we’ve had the Pride parade in London promoting diversity which will be replicated in cities across the UK. The annual events that are Wimbledon and the British Grand […]
The following is an extract from a news update which we email to our clients on a monthly basis. This is an example of the content we produce. If you would like any further information then please do not hesitate to contact the team using the Contact Us link at the top of the page. […]
We are delighted to announce that our Dynamic Fund was Highly Commended in the Managed Cautious category at the Investment Week Fund Manager of the Year Awards 2018 on 5th July.