My Grandad died at the age of 21! How is that possible?! Well he was born on the 29th of February and as that was a leap year, he only had 21 birthdays in his 84 years. This year is also a leap year and to many investors, investing now is something of a […]
For bond investors, 2019 was a good year despite the rise in yields in the final quarter. For TBAM, this is an asset class that have chosen to avoid in our multi-asset Dynamic Fund. With an objective of UK inflation plus 3% per annum over rolling three year periods, it is not worth investing our […]
As you will have seen untold volumes of media footage and column inches, in addition to any number of invitations to webinars on the election outcome from investment providers, I will only state that the size of the majority gives the PM five years in office but also allows the Conservatives to become more centrist. […]
Balanced or Unbalanced? The old-fashioned balanced fund is still favoured by many investors as a sensible way of investing. Also referred to as a 60/40 portfolio where, depending on your risk appetite, the 60% is either in bonds or equities, the approach has morphed into a multi-asset style of investing encompassing more asset classes and […]
Being Different… “Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth” – John F. Kennedy Readers will no doubt be aware that we vehemently disagree with the industry template the investment herd follows. As a refresher, that view relates to indices, their construction and constituents. Why should an investor care about an index? […]
Whatever it takes – Draghing the Euro down – even lower for longer August’s mid-monthly update was titled ‘Lower for Longer’, referring to the extremely low, often negative yields available on longer-dated maturities in the bond markets of North America, Europe and Japan. On September 12th, the European Central Bank (ECB), as anticipated, lowered its […]
The 2019 Rugby World Cup kicks off on Friday in Japan and we can’t wait! Japanese equities provide us with thematic exposure to areas such as technology, robotics and reform through small and mid-cap companies. The Yen can also act as a buffer against market volatility in risk assets.
Lower for Longer There was a time when ‘lower for longer’ meant that short term interest rates or official monetary policy in the developed economies, would remain low or perhaps go lower. That may still be the case but, except for the US, there is little scope for interest rate cuts from the major Central […]
Is the term ’emerging markets’ merely a flag of convenience? Finding an Asian fund that doesn’t deliver index-like returns is like finding a needle in a haystack.
Overrated II In June’s mid-monthly update ‘Overrated’ – https://tbaileyam.co.uk/news-and-views/ – we commented on the potential over-optimism of developed government bond markets regarding the future path of official interest rates led by the US Federal Funds rate. At the same time, we referenced the start of the 2019 Cricket World Cup in England and Wales and […]
Overrated The Cricket World Cup is currently taking place in England and Wales, and there are a few games taking place at Trent Bridge here in Nottingham. I was fortunate enough to be at the England vs Pakistan match last week. A cracking match but England lost. England almost had their captain suspended for a […]
The title of this piece refers to a misalignment of interest often also described as a principal/agent conflict. The principal is the investor and the agent is the asset manager. The investor wants to preserve and grow their capital in real terms while many agents, especially publically-quoted asset management companies, want to gather assets and […]
As markets again oscillate around tariffs and the latest tweets from Donald Trump, we thought we would avoid adding to your list of commentaries on that subject and instead focus on a long-standing gripe of ours – inappropriate labels and our industry’s desire to sell product made for institutional investors rather than solutions for the […]
Brexit – we thought we were close but now it might take longer so the questions might be if and when? The Tax Year End – something you can depend on and the last minute scurrying around that goes with it. We are coming to the end of the National Hunt Festival at Cheltenham and […]
Currently financial markets are nervous about a few things. From the media headlines of last year worrying their readership about growth being too strong in the US economy and interest rates needing to rise, we now have worries about recession in most developed economies and the yields on their government bonds plummeting to reflect this […]
Also a great song from 1980 by The Vapors but … …Yesterday morning (21/2/19) saw the release of Germany’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February. The index fell to a 74 month low of 47.6 versus an expected 49.8. Order books saw the biggest fall for six and a half years. So, negative Euro interest […]
Earlier this month we witnessed the Chinese New Year and the start of the year of the pig. For the Chinese, the year of the pig has a specific relevance, good fortune and a beautiful personality. For the sceptics among us that view economic statistics from China with some caution, pig might stand for perpetually […]
It’s a Small World Yes, at times every stock market and in 2018, almost every asset class seems to be highly correlated unfortunately in last year’s case – to the downside. One could be forgiven for thinking that means the investment world has become smaller. Perhaps the weight of money pouring into passive investing effectively […]
January Sales The sales that occur in January and with reasonable frequency throughout the year. This is a familiar story as figures from the British Retail Consortium (see below) would indicate unless you’re Aldi or LIDL. Any coincidence that they are both private companies and can run […]