Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US presidential election significantly influenced the news in November and provided a boost to the US equity market. Although the specific economic policies that will be implemented remain uncertain until after his inauguration in January 2025, campaign promises to impose tariffs have raised concerns about inflation and the potential […]

The US economy continues to exhibit notable resilience, particularly in terms of consumer spending. Many consumers and businesses secured low interest rates during the pandemic, with fixed-rate mortgages serving as a prominent example, thereby mitigating the impact of current higher interest rates. Fiscal policy has been expansive, with the United States running a 6% budget […]

Global equity markets achieved positive returns in aggregate for the month despite a significant downturn early on. Source: FE Analytics Numerous wide ranging factors contributed to market stress including: Berkshire Hathaway’s announcement that it had halved its Apple Inc. position, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in the Middle East, comments from the Bank of […]

Downs and Up As inflation continued to subside in western developed economies, so the inevitable official interest rate cuts’ debate swelled.  More on that below.  China belatedly cut rates in an attempt to boost its ailing economy.  In contrast, the Bank of Japan finally grabbed the moment to raise interest rates. Breadth The publication of […]

Margins Fine This past weekend gave us examples of fine margins.  Spain’s winner in the Euro final against England being just onside and England’s chances being cleared off the line with just a couple of minutes to go.  For followers of the oval ball, Ireland’s last minute kick to beat South Africa was another. Crucially […]

Financial markets’ fixation with US unemployment data, despite its poor construction and large revisions, brought about a tough start to June.

With inflation headed lower although not yet at the pace central bankers would like, encouraging economic growth signs emerged from both the UK and Eurozone last week. 

GDP is short for Gross Domestic Product, a measure of an economy’s output and the most watched in many cases. It could also be an acronym for gigantic data processing and an important component of the artificial intelligence (AI)

Last October, post the Iranian-sponsored Hamas attack on Israel, we made an asset allocation call to raise cash across the funds we manage. The multi-asset funds were the main allocators to a cash increase as they would be expected to be more defensive when required.

Are We Nearly There Yet? - Not the first time we’ve used this title but appropriate during school holidays and reviewing market optimism, or lack thereof, about official rate cut expectations in the UK, EU and US.

Two things grabbed market attention in the first half of March: The UK budget on 6 March which had little impact on financial markets and the US employment report which commands more attention than it warrants given huge revisions to previous data.

The final day of February brought the latest update on US inflation or, to be more precise, the US Federal Reserve’s core personal consumer expenditures (PCE) prices index, which was released for the month of January.