News and views

T. Bailey Blog- DCF

DCF or discounted cash flow analysis is a commonly used valuation tool for equity.  ‘Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flow. DCF analysis attempts to figure out the value of an investment today, based on projections of how much money it […]

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Mid Monthly update – January 2021

Calm Ana (anagram)  Most of us are working from home and in our down time (if you’re not home schooling), you might have time for another activity. Crosswords are popular and within them are the odd anagram.  Hopefully, you may have worked out that the title’s letters also spell almanac.  At the start of each […]

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December 2020 Review

Special K  As we start 2021, the month of January is a month of giving something up for many – also known as resolutions.  It might be alcohol or a move to a healthier diet such as the cereal mentioned above. However, since the end of the first quarter of 2020, economic pundits have been […]

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Mid Monthly Update – December 2020

Thematic Investing – since 1999 On Sunday, December 13th, the T. Bailey Growth Fund celebrated its 21st anniversary.  While thematic investing has become more mainstream this year, the Growth Fund has adopted this approach since its inception. Twenty-one isn’t a great age in human terms, but it is a decent length of time for a […]

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November 2020 Review

Broken Records What a month?! The nervousness over Covid-19’s second wave and the US Presidential Election pushed Brexit withdrawal onto the back burner at the start of November. Volatility, as measured by the VIX future, was elevated at 37 – it would end November at 21. By the end of the month, a number of […]

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T. Bailey Blog – Supercharged

So, some six months after anticipated, Tesla will be part of the S&P 500 index as of 21 December 2020. As Tesla will be the 10th, possibly the 11th largest component of the S&P 500, the index has invited submissions on whether they should allow the whole company in – in one go. After all, […]

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Mid Monthly update – November 2020

November 2020 Mid-Monthly Update  In a year when the word ‘unprecedented’ has been used an unprecedented number of times, the first half of November was full of volatility-inducing news. So much so, that Brexit barely got a look-in. What was unprecedented and noteworthy was the news of a vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech for […]

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October 2020 Review

The first half of the month saw a gradual appreciation of risk assets before a mid-month realisation reversed gains made in most markets and prices of those assets fell in the second half of October.  Investor nervousness over the US Presidential Election and the rapidly increasing cases of Covid-19 infections across Europe and parts of the US were the major catalysts for last month’s second half reversal in returns although, the inability of the US to process a further economic stimulus package ahead of the November 3rd election added to market frustration.

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Mid Monthly Update – October 2020

Be Careful What You Wish For? I write this on Brexit deadline day and those, including the consensus, looking for an eleventh-hour agreement with the EU are set to be disappointed.  Maybe a thirteenth-hour deal after the EU’s Brussels summit will ensue.  But I am not going to linger on that, you can get plenty […]

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Six Monthly Newsletter – for the six months to 30 September 2020

 (All references to performance are in Sterling terms and for the T. Bailey funds are provided after all ongoing charges). Performance Summary Over the six-month period to end-September 2020 the T. Bailey Growth Fund rose by 33.34% net of all ongoing charges and the T. Bailey Dynamic Fund rose by 19.32% net of all ongoing […]

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September 2020 Review

The market volatility seen in August continued at a greater pace in September with a focus on the technology sector and the big US ‘tech’ firms.  At one stage, Tesla, which had quadrupled in size since the end of March 2020 and was expected to enter the S&P 500, fell by over 30%.  The NASDAQ fell by 10% in a week. The US S&P 500 equity index fell by 4% in September.

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Countdown?

Labels, anagrams and acronyms. Unintended concentration in Emerging Markets? Introducung STATs.

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Mid Monthly Update – September 2020

 Look Both Ways When you cross the road, you look both ways.  Focussing on looking to the left may mean being hit by something coming from the right.  In investing, many or most investors concentrate on looking left.  Let me explain. Below is a graph of bell curve distribution patterns.  Just over two-thirds of the […]

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August 2020 Review

August was a mixed month weather-wise, starting with a heatwave and feeling quite damp and autumnal at the end.  Financial markets also had a mixed month, but risk assets generally performed well and finished on a firm note.  The exceptions were the US currency which continued its weak performance from July and bond yields which, […]

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August 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Bad Breadth?

Not the affliction also known as halitosis but a reflection on the how the S&P 500 has rapidly become the S&P 5 as the most popularly quoted US equity index (sorry DJII) has increasingly been driven by the top 5 stocks.  Take the Nasdaq 100 index too. Often used to reflect the tech sector’s influence, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon represent 35% of the Nasdaq 100 index.

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Robin Hood

As a Nottingham-based company, T. Bailey Asset Management (TBAM) has an affinity with Robin Hood.  Our offices are a few hundred yards from the Robin Hood statue which sits outside the walls of Nottingham Castle.  The same offices were constructed in the late 1700s for the then Sheriff of Nottingham.

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July 2020 Review

The first month of the second half of 2020 saw equity markets get off to a positive start.  In contrast to the previous quarter’s surge in broad equity indices after March’s market dislocations, July witnessed a number of bumps in the road.  As happened in June, the appearance of the occasional air pocket took the steam out of risk assets and reminded investors that although volatility has receded, it hasn’t gone away. The year to date picture of the VIX volatility index below, sourced from Yahoo Finance, illustrates the changes in volatility.

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July 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Since February, you may have been inundated, possibly bombarded with webinar invites, commentaries and opinions on financial markets predicting everything from doom and gloom and pessimism to outright optimism.  At T. Bailey, we chose to increase communication with the aim of keeping you informed about our thoughts in the teeth of the financial market dislocations but more importantly, about how Dynamic and Growth were and are positioned.  Throughout we are conscious of your limited reading time and we have no wish to clog up your email inbox.  As a consequence, this mid-monthly update will be succinct.

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T. Bailey welcomes Noland Carter as a non-Executive Director

Noland was formerly Head of Heartwood Investment Management and Chief Investment Officer. Previous to this, he was CEO, UK Wealth Management at Rothschild & Co, CEO, Investment Services and Global CIO, Barclays Wealth. Noland brings a wealth of relevant experience that will enable TBAM to develop its business for the benefit of its investors.

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June 2020 Review

The rebound in risk assets which started in the final week of March continued in June, albeit at a slower pace and not without encountering the occasional air pocket of turbulence/volatility.  Indeed, volatility remains elevated as can be seen in the chart below courtesy of The Wall Street Journal and sourced from Goldman Sachs.

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