News and views

Mid Monthly Update – November 2019

Balanced or Unbalanced? The old-fashioned balanced fund is still favoured by many investors as a sensible way of investing. Also referred to as a 60/40 portfolio where, depending on your risk appetite, the 60% is either in bonds or equities, the approach has morphed into a multi-asset style of investing encompassing more asset classes and […]

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – October 2019

Being Different… “Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth” – John F. Kennedy Readers will no doubt be aware that we vehemently disagree with the industry template the investment herd follows. As a refresher, that view relates to indices, their construction and constituents. Why should an investor care about an index? […]

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – September 2019

Whatever it takes – Draghing the Euro down – even lower for longer August’s mid-monthly update was titled ‘Lower for Longer’, referring to the extremely low, often negative yields available on longer-dated maturities in the bond markets of North America, Europe and Japan.  On September 12th, the European Central Bank (ECB), as anticipated, lowered its […]

Continue reading

RWC Japan

The 2019 Rugby World Cup kicks off on Friday in Japan and we can’t wait! Japanese equities provide us with thematic exposure to areas such as technology, robotics and reform through small and mid-cap companies. The Yen can also act as a buffer against market volatility in risk assets.

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – August 2019

Lower for Longer There was a time when ‘lower for longer’ meant that short term interest rates or official monetary policy in the developed economies, would remain low or perhaps go lower. That may still be the case but, except for the US, there is little scope for interest rate cuts from the major Central […]

Continue reading

Flags of Convenience

Is the term ’emerging markets’ merely a flag of convenience? Finding an Asian fund that doesn’t deliver index-like returns is like finding a needle in a haystack.

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – July 2019

Overrated II In June’s mid-monthly update ‘Overrated’ – https://tbaileyam.co.uk/news-and-views/ – we commented on the potential over-optimism of developed government bond markets regarding the future path of official interest rates led by the US Federal Funds rate. At the same time, we referenced the start of the 2019 Cricket World Cup in England and Wales and […]

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – June 2019

Overrated The Cricket World Cup is currently taking place in England and Wales, and there are a few games taking place at Trent Bridge here in Nottingham. I was fortunate enough to be at the England vs Pakistan match last week. A cracking match but England lost. England almost had their captain suspended for a […]

Continue reading

A Misalignment of Interest

The title of this piece refers to a misalignment of interest often also described as a principal/agent conflict. The principal is the investor and the agent is the asset manager. The investor wants to preserve and grow their capital in real terms while many agents, especially publically-quoted asset management companies, want to gather assets and […]

Continue reading

Inappropriate Labels

As markets again oscillate around tariffs and the latest tweets from Donald Trump, we thought we would avoid adding to your list of commentaries on that subject and instead focus on a long-standing gripe of ours – inappropriate labels and our industry’s desire to sell product made for institutional investors rather than solutions for the […]

Continue reading

Are We There Yet?!

Brexit – we thought we were close but now it might take longer so the questions might be if and when? The Tax Year End – something you can depend on and the last minute scurrying around that goes with it. We are coming to the end of the National Hunt Festival at Cheltenham and […]

Continue reading

Really Interesting

Currently financial markets are nervous about a few things.  From the media headlines of last year worrying their readership about growth being too strong in the US economy and interest rates needing to rise, we now have worries about recession in most developed economies and the yields on their government bonds plummeting to reflect this […]

Continue reading

Turning Japanese – 2019

Also a great song from 1980 by The Vapors but … …Yesterday morning (21/2/19) saw the release of Germany’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February. The index fell to a 74 month low of 47.6 versus an expected 49.8. Order books saw the biggest fall for six and a half years. So, negative Euro interest […]

Continue reading

The Year of the Pig

Earlier this month we witnessed the Chinese New Year and the start of the year of the pig. For the Chinese, the year of the pig has a specific relevance, good fortune and a beautiful personality. For the sceptics among us that view economic statistics from China with some caution, pig might stand for perpetually […]

Continue reading

It’s a Small World

It’s a Small World Yes, at times every stock market and in 2018, almost every asset class seems to be highly correlated unfortunately in last year’s case – to the downside. One could be forgiven for thinking that means the investment world has become smaller. Perhaps the weight of money pouring into passive investing effectively […]

Continue reading

Mid Monthly Update – January 2019

January Sales                 The sales that occur in January and with reasonable frequency throughout the year. This is a familiar story as figures from the British Retail Consortium (see below) would indicate unless you’re Aldi or LIDL. Any coincidence that they are both private companies and can run […]

Continue reading

We are indebted to you…

For your support this year as 2018 comes to an end. It is also worth noting that one of our concerns is the amount of debt the private sector has built up, notably in the US where cheap funding costs have enabled many companies to borrow cheaply to buy back their own stock and in […]

Continue reading

Credit Where Credit is Due – A Brexit Distraction

And that is the last time I shall mention the ‘B’ word in this piece. Regular readers and investors will be familiar with our thematic approach to investing rather than the conventional geography and asset class template commonly used in our industry. We publish our key investment themes to invest in but don’t often mention […]

Continue reading

Hotel California

Not a reference to the appalling wildfires around the inappropriately named town of Paradise but a Brexit reference to the May deal – ‘you can check out but you might never leave’, a modest adaptation of the lyrics from that classic song by The Eagles. Writing the mid-monthly update during a tumultuous period in British […]

Continue reading

Shareholders are revolting!

One of the noteworthy events of October so far in amongst the party conferences was the UK shareholders overturning the decision of one of the UK’s leading corporates to re-locate from London to Rotterdam in the face of Brexit. As a consequence, Unileaver will remain Unilever. Anyone who has been to Rotterdam might question the […]

Continue reading