News and views

August 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Bad Breadth?

Not the affliction also known as halitosis but a reflection on the how the S&P 500 has rapidly become the S&P 5 as the most popularly quoted US equity index (sorry DJII) has increasingly been driven by the top 5 stocks.  Take the Nasdaq 100 index too. Often used to reflect the tech sector’s influence, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon represent 35% of the Nasdaq 100 index.

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Robin Hood

As a Nottingham-based company, T. Bailey Asset Management (TBAM) has an affinity with Robin Hood.  Our offices are a few hundred yards from the Robin Hood statue which sits outside the walls of Nottingham Castle.  The same offices were constructed in the late 1700s for the then Sheriff of Nottingham.

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July 2020 Review

The first month of the second half of 2020 saw equity markets get off to a positive start.  In contrast to the previous quarter’s surge in broad equity indices after March’s market dislocations, July witnessed a number of bumps in the road.  As happened in June, the appearance of the occasional air pocket took the steam out of risk assets and reminded investors that although volatility has receded, it hasn’t gone away. The year to date picture of the VIX volatility index below, sourced from Yahoo Finance, illustrates the changes in volatility.

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July 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Since February, you may have been inundated, possibly bombarded with webinar invites, commentaries and opinions on financial markets predicting everything from doom and gloom and pessimism to outright optimism.  At T. Bailey, we chose to increase communication with the aim of keeping you informed about our thoughts in the teeth of the financial market dislocations but more importantly, about how Dynamic and Growth were and are positioned.  Throughout we are conscious of your limited reading time and we have no wish to clog up your email inbox.  As a consequence, this mid-monthly update will be succinct.

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June 2020 Review

The rebound in risk assets which started in the final week of March continued in June, albeit at a slower pace and not without encountering the occasional air pocket of turbulence/volatility.  Indeed, volatility remains elevated as can be seen in the chart below courtesy of The Wall Street Journal and sourced from Goldman Sachs.

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A Fairer Society?

A fairer society is the great hope of many as the world emerges from this pandemic. That does seem to be the way responses to the Covid-19 virus have steered fiscal policy.

Frustration frequently results in protests – the gilets jaunes for example, although French protesting is a cultural thing going back to the revolution.  In the US, the death of George Floyd and the resultant Black Lives Matter protests have lit the touch paper which has the potential to change society in profoundly positive ways both in the US and worldwide. 

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June 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Indigestion June had seen a continuation of rising prices for risk assets as expectations of a decent economic recovery were underpinned by further lockdown easing in Europe and the US.  Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, last Thursday’s 6% fall the US S&P500 index reminded investors that the […]

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May 2020 Review

May saw a continuation of the rally in risk assets that started at the end of March and continued through April. Growth equities were the winners in May especially in technology sectors benefiting from restricted economies and the resultant expansion of the digital economy.

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May 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Know Your Alphabet? Not a question about Google’s holding company but a prompt about certain letters – U, V, W not an updated German car company either.  Those letters represent the preoccupation of the financial media with a letter that signifies the shape of the likely economic recovery from the current slump.  For those fixated […]

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April 2020 Review

The savage and rapid financial market falls that stunned investors in March gave way to a meaningful rebound as the rally that started in the final week of March continued through April only petering out in the final couple of days of April.

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Supply, Demand and Storage – 27th April 2020

Last week saw the dislocation of the oil market.  Having suffered a demand shock when economies around the world hit a sudden stop, the Russians and Saudi Arabia decided to magnify the problem by trying to gain market share, in the process pumping vast quantities of oil which few needed.

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It could be a Marathon but it won’t be a Sprint – 21/04/20

Next Sunday, April 26th, would have seen the London Marathon take place.  Of course, it was postponed some weeks ago but as a previous participant (three times having said ‘never again’ after the first time, slower and slower by the way) it always brings back some fond memories and the odd wince.

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April 2020- Mid Monthly Update

The first half of April could not contrast more with that of March as far as financial markets are concerned. The first three weeks of March saw market turmoil and at the start of March’s third week, a dislocated set of markets that barely functioned until central banks stepped in.

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Emerged or Emerging

We appreciate that investors and clients are probably more concerned about market direction and peaks in infection rates than asset allocation at the moment, but we have seen a number of pieces about emerging market equities – concerns and opportunities.  For this weekly update, we thought we’d dispel or try to dispel a myth and get a greater focus on the ‘EM’ landscape.

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Six Monthly Newsletter – for the six months to 31 March 2020

Any meaningful events in the first five months of the period to March 2020 were eclipsed by the final five weeks of the half-year when the Covid-19 coronavirus arrived in Northern Italy from Asia on the penultimate weekend of February.

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March 2020 Review

 March Madness?  During my time working in the United States in a previous life, March was notable among sports fans for the annual National College (NCAA) Basketball Championships also known as ‘March Madness’.  Needless to say, it didn’t take place this year and apologies to non-sports fans for this reference but for many investors, March […]

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We’re All in This Together

Along with ‘whatever it takes’, two phrases that have had many mentions in the past week.  There has been more ‘whatever it takes’ this week from the US Federal Reserve in providing support to markets, liquidity and companies but that was the title of last week’s blog update.

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Whatever it Takes

The phrase coined by the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi in 2011 that effectively saved the Euro has been quoted by more than one country leader and/or their finance minister in the past week.

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Seeking Crystal Clarity not Crystallisation

 At times like these, it is hard not to be emotional and that usually involves an urge to sell after risk markets have lurched downwards again after already suffering substantial losses – all in the space of a month.

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Business Continuity amid COVID-19

COVID-19 – T. Bailey Asset Management business contingency details.

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