News and views

Mid Monthly Update – October 2020

Be Careful What You Wish For? I write this on Brexit deadline day and those, including the consensus, looking for an eleventh-hour agreement with the EU are set to be disappointed.  Maybe a thirteenth-hour deal after the EU’s Brussels summit will ensue.  But I am not going to linger on that, you can get plenty […]

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Six Monthly Newsletter – for the six months to 30 September 2020

 (All references to performance are in Sterling terms and for the T. Bailey funds are provided after all ongoing charges). Performance Summary Over the six-month period to end-September 2020 the T. Bailey Growth Fund rose by 33.34% net of all ongoing charges and the T. Bailey Dynamic Fund rose by 19.32% net of all ongoing […]

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September 2020 Review

The market volatility seen in August continued at a greater pace in September with a focus on the technology sector and the big US ‘tech’ firms.  At one stage, Tesla, which had quadrupled in size since the end of March 2020 and was expected to enter the S&P 500, fell by over 30%.  The NASDAQ fell by 10% in a week. The US S&P 500 equity index fell by 4% in September.

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Countdown?

Labels, anagrams and acronyms. Unintended concentration in Emerging Markets? Introducung STATs.

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Mid Monthly Update – September 2020

 Look Both Ways When you cross the road, you look both ways.  Focussing on looking to the left may mean being hit by something coming from the right.  In investing, many or most investors concentrate on looking left.  Let me explain. Below is a graph of bell curve distribution patterns.  Just over two-thirds of the […]

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August 2020 Review

August was a mixed month weather-wise, starting with a heatwave and feeling quite damp and autumnal at the end.  Financial markets also had a mixed month, but risk assets generally performed well and finished on a firm note.  The exceptions were the US currency which continued its weak performance from July and bond yields which, […]

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August 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Bad Breadth?

Not the affliction also known as halitosis but a reflection on the how the S&P 500 has rapidly become the S&P 5 as the most popularly quoted US equity index (sorry DJII) has increasingly been driven by the top 5 stocks.  Take the Nasdaq 100 index too. Often used to reflect the tech sector’s influence, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon represent 35% of the Nasdaq 100 index.

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Robin Hood

As a Nottingham-based company, T. Bailey Asset Management (TBAM) has an affinity with Robin Hood.  Our offices are a few hundred yards from the Robin Hood statue which sits outside the walls of Nottingham Castle.  The same offices were constructed in the late 1700s for the then Sheriff of Nottingham.

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July 2020 Review

The first month of the second half of 2020 saw equity markets get off to a positive start.  In contrast to the previous quarter’s surge in broad equity indices after March’s market dislocations, July witnessed a number of bumps in the road.  As happened in June, the appearance of the occasional air pocket took the steam out of risk assets and reminded investors that although volatility has receded, it hasn’t gone away. The year to date picture of the VIX volatility index below, sourced from Yahoo Finance, illustrates the changes in volatility.

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July 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Since February, you may have been inundated, possibly bombarded with webinar invites, commentaries and opinions on financial markets predicting everything from doom and gloom and pessimism to outright optimism.  At T. Bailey, we chose to increase communication with the aim of keeping you informed about our thoughts in the teeth of the financial market dislocations but more importantly, about how Dynamic and Growth were and are positioned.  Throughout we are conscious of your limited reading time and we have no wish to clog up your email inbox.  As a consequence, this mid-monthly update will be succinct.

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T. Bailey welcomes Noland Carter as a non-Executive Director

Noland was formerly Head of Heartwood Investment Management and Chief Investment Officer. Previous to this, he was CEO, UK Wealth Management at Rothschild & Co, CEO, Investment Services and Global CIO, Barclays Wealth. Noland brings a wealth of relevant experience that will enable TBAM to develop its business for the benefit of its investors.

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June 2020 Review

The rebound in risk assets which started in the final week of March continued in June, albeit at a slower pace and not without encountering the occasional air pocket of turbulence/volatility.  Indeed, volatility remains elevated as can be seen in the chart below courtesy of The Wall Street Journal and sourced from Goldman Sachs.

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A Fairer Society?

A fairer society is the great hope of many as the world emerges from this pandemic. That does seem to be the way responses to the Covid-19 virus have steered fiscal policy.

Frustration frequently results in protests – the gilets jaunes for example, although French protesting is a cultural thing going back to the revolution.  In the US, the death of George Floyd and the resultant Black Lives Matter protests have lit the touch paper which has the potential to change society in profoundly positive ways both in the US and worldwide. 

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June 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Indigestion June had seen a continuation of rising prices for risk assets as expectations of a decent economic recovery were underpinned by further lockdown easing in Europe and the US.  Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, last Thursday’s 6% fall the US S&P500 index reminded investors that the […]

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May 2020 Review

May saw a continuation of the rally in risk assets that started at the end of March and continued through April. Growth equities were the winners in May especially in technology sectors benefiting from restricted economies and the resultant expansion of the digital economy.

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May 2020 – Mid Monthly Update

Know Your Alphabet? Not a question about Google’s holding company but a prompt about certain letters – U, V, W not an updated German car company either.  Those letters represent the preoccupation of the financial media with a letter that signifies the shape of the likely economic recovery from the current slump.  For those fixated […]

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April 2020 Review

The savage and rapid financial market falls that stunned investors in March gave way to a meaningful rebound as the rally that started in the final week of March continued through April only petering out in the final couple of days of April.

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Supply, Demand and Storage – 27th April 2020

Last week saw the dislocation of the oil market.  Having suffered a demand shock when economies around the world hit a sudden stop, the Russians and Saudi Arabia decided to magnify the problem by trying to gain market share, in the process pumping vast quantities of oil which few needed.

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It could be a Marathon but it won’t be a Sprint – 21/04/20

Next Sunday, April 26th, would have seen the London Marathon take place.  Of course, it was postponed some weeks ago but as a previous participant (three times having said ‘never again’ after the first time, slower and slower by the way) it always brings back some fond memories and the odd wince.

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April 2020- Mid Monthly Update

The first half of April could not contrast more with that of March as far as financial markets are concerned. The first three weeks of March saw market turmoil and at the start of March’s third week, a dislocated set of markets that barely functioned until central banks stepped in.

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